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Last week was pretty uneventful in the stock markets, but Bitcoin continued to show buyers were active as it pushed a new ATH.  Though we closed out a couple positions going into the long weekend, we have built up additional cash to take some shorter term positions in stocks that are showing bullish setups.

As far as the crypto universe goes, we are still interested in longs, but do not want to trade just to trade.  Long term we are holding our positions, have some cash to put to work, but in the short term we need to see a setup that meets our criteria.

Bitcoin

BTCUSD

Bearish pinbar formed on the daily which may signal an interim top.  Need to see the low taken out to trigger a short, but not sure we are going to fall too far from grace here.

Though broader support is in the  16500-20000 area, I am interested in trades out of the 21-24k area.  Will consider a continuation trade if one evolves, but want to be agile to take profits quickly with this type of setup as it puts a trader in a position to get faked-out with a break higher.

Still potential for a swing into the low 30’s, can’t deny the buying is still strong, but want to trade or add off a pullback.

If you are in it for the long term, there is nothing to do here but let it ride, there is still a lot of room to run.  Just looking at some of the bearish comments on TradingView is a sign that we are not into FOMO yet so would not be surprised to see a run to 32k.

Ethereum

ETHUSD

Ethereum catching some tail winds here as it attempts to take out 700 (close above and continuation higher).  Setting up nicely for a run into the 800-900 area where I will be looking to further reduce some risk.

As good as these moves are, of all the major coins only Bitcoin is pushing new ATH’s.  Ethereum is still 50% off its ATH, but is showing strength, so would be interested in adding a small position on a pullback.

Don’t own much at this point, sold the majority of my Ethereum and other alts to put into Bitcoin or raise cash for a buying opportunity.  But it is on my radar.

S&P

S&P

Pre-market does not hold a lot of weight, but we were looking for continued bullish action last week, that simply did not evolve.  Was pretty much a ranging market for the most part.

This week is still going to be a light trading week as the Holiday vacation continues but again looking for the break higher towards 3800.

Key levels here are a close above 3735 for bullish continuation towards 3800,  a close below 3680 for a retest of 3620.  IF we get a close below 3620 the key support level for the market is at 3545.  Takes this level out, looking at the start of a potential broader pullback.

Nautilus

NLS

All the hoopla about Peloton, which we provided a trade idea a couple weeks ago in our active members chat, but a much less known stock, in the same exercise segment is not getting as much attention, but looking at the prior bullish structure it is showing signs of bullishness.

With the new move into health and exercise, there is the potential for a larger player to acquire or merge with a company like Nautilus.  Under Armour is a potential merger, maybe an Apple or Google acquisition makes sense.

Regardless I like NLS as a long, looking to add into any dip or upon a break of 22.00 for a target of 26-28.

Nautilus is the maker of not only Nautilus equipment but Bowflex, Octane Fitness and Schwinn Bicycles.  Price to sales is 1.37 with a FPE of 14.5 and a market cap just over 630 million.

Compare that to Peloton which does not have the same equipment offering (primarily bikes and treadmills) is trading at a FPE of 400, price to sales of 20.65 and a market cap of 48 Billion.

 

Lattice Semiconductor

LSCC

Also looking at Lattice Semiconductor for a continuation trade as it has formed a tight consolidation and is one to benefit from 5G infrastructure.

Target 50.0 with a stop around 42. makes this continuation trade one worth putting on the radar.

GE

GE

Couple beat up and thrown to the side stocks I am looking at buying.  GE is top of the list here as another 100 year plus stock that has fallen from grace.

However with a vaccine and airlines to return, a move to green energy and oil prices rising, I think GE is in a position for those that have do not mind sitting on some shares for a while.

Over the next year or so 18.00 is a reasonable target and we are looking at a long call idea to limit risk maximize reward.

Ford

F

The other stock I think has potential to double over the next 12-18 months is Ford.  New product line, 18 month waiting list for the new Bronco, the Mustang EV is set to release mid year, there is some room to run with Ford.

Showing continued buying off the 4.10 low and if it takes out 10, room to run.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

REGN

Last but not least a bio-tech for consideration here.  We have been in Regeneron before and the pullback is offering a good opportunity to own a quality Biotech stock for a swing back to 620.0

Though there is no setup yet, we are looking at this for a position trade.

Gold

XAUUSD

Little volatile in overnight trading, but the structure is still pointing towards a bullish swing back to the 1950-1980 area.

Need to see where we are after the cash open, but we have several miners on our radar for longs.

Dollar Index

DXY

Dollar index starting to show some signs of bottoming here, still a little early but the Reward is worth the Risk here IMO.  As mentioned last week we start to see strength in the Dollar want to watch the stock market for implied weakness as they have been pretty highly inversely correlated.

So after taking a break from Forex, finally looking for a long USD trade here and there is a lot of room to run.

Summary

The Santa Claus rally traditionally flows into the beginning of the year, and though we are still looking for longs, we are taking a risk off approach, keeping our cash position elevated, getting in and out of trades when we are in profits and looking at stocks that have been beaten up and are showing signs of buy side rotation.

Tech is not going anywhere, but there are some value stocks on our radar that we want to position into to balance our portfolio out.

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