Last week we were looking for longs, and there is no reason to fight momentum here, but we start to become more cautious as the markets push new highs. Lots of personal biases on what the job numbers would be, 8 million lost, 4 million lost, 20% Unemployment number.
The experts were clearly wrong with an unexpected 2.5 million jobs created. Of course the experts had to put some slant on the numbers, but money does not lie and it does not care about your feelings or attempt to slant the totals, the market rallied and rallied nicely closing strong.
So pessimism has turned to optimism. We are still looking for longs and with 2 targets hit in three trades, if we see a setup we like we may add another position. So can this optimism spill over into Bitcoin and is there any evidence that we are nearing a top?
Bitcoin looked a little weak today but as we mentioned earlier in the active investor chat room, as long as 9375 holds here there is really nothing to do. The fact we once again sell side orders were absorbed, not taking out the 9375 level is further evidence that the market may be setting up for a leg higher.
Two key levels for Bitcoin here, 10k for a potential swing to 10,400 again, but if we take it out this time, I am looking at 11,200 to trade, and 9375 for a potential swing to 9000, with the possibility 8600 trades.
IF we close near 9800, probabilities favor a swing higher and we are looking at an aggressive long signal here. We would rather trade out of the mid 8k region, or a break of 10k and a continuation or bullish reversal off a pullback and retest of the prior resistance soon to be support area.
Overall we are in a swing and position trade and there is nothing to do but let the market play out here. Many got cold feet with the ugly candle stick printed earlier in the week, but we held tight and for now there is nothing to do but let the market play out.
In short it is still a tough area to take a trade either way.
Stocks have everything going for them right now, momentum, trend and positive news on the economic front, but much of this is already priced in as the market pushes higher.
Not going to fight either here, but there area couple levels of interest. After the cash open looking for a break of 3200 for 3250 to trade and a break of 3180 for 3125 to trade.
Not going to be opinionated here going to see how the market opens and more importantly closes tomorrow before looking at any new positions.
We have a few long trades ongoing, are interested in adding a couple stocks to our portfolio and as trades, but we also want to maintain a decent cash position and keep our risk limited as the market nears an ATH.
Not an area to be overly aggressive long, but we continue to stay long as long as the market is showing strength. When this market sells off it is going to likely be pretty decisive, and our position is that we pullback over the next month or so.
Just have to be patient, but we are looking for a broader higher low to be more aggressive in trading and our portfolio. It will happen just have to be patient.
Gold sold off on the news, but this is far from a short, in fact as long as the 1660 level holds we consider this a broad consolidation. Buyers have been active in the 1680’s and this is holding true again even into the headwinds of a positive job number.
We are looking for another long in Gold, and will assess after the cash open tomorrow. Still looking for 1800 to trade here.
The US Dollar finally found some buyers and closed on the high of the day forming a bullish pinbar but it is still a little early to be going long the US Dollar here.
Looking for a potential rally back into the 98.0 area initially but momentum is still bearish and it is risky taking a counter momentum trade here. Broader picture the dollar is bullish, but we are not going to opine, rather wait for a better setup.
We had several Forex trades closed out this week with one still in play, and have several on our trade radar for the week. Potentially a counter trend trade with the Dollar if the setup is there, but overall looking for another short USD trade for a broader move into the 95.0-96.0 support area.
In closing having an opinion can get you in trouble with trading. The market was showing evidence of higher prices last week and we stuck to what price action and order flow was telling us, not the news and expert opinions.
Have a few stocks and forex pairs on our radar this week, and a potential trade of the week that may be a broader winner, so tune in tomorrow for the 4:05 talking markets show which you can follow on our you tube channel here.
Also Marc does a daily update of the markets on our youtube channel and answers your questions live in the room.
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