Tron makes a comeback and just about every crap coin has been scrapped off the road like a dead possum and served up to the herd as road kill sandwiches. Where were all these investors a year ago and 40k pts less?
Yet like the 1848 gold rush once a panner hits gold the river runs riff with every speculator selling everything they have in the hopes of striking it rich. Many with little experience can not tell the difference between fool’s gold and the real McCoy.
Of course we all know how this is going to end, and it will end badly with a bunch of speculators holding a bunch of crap and those not smart enough to get rid of their bags at these levels. Now not every alt coin is crap, but lets be honest, 95% of them have no future in the digital age.
No different in the stock market as speculators roll into cannabis, EV companies, and anything that is posted in reddit forums, all the while ignoring the solid companies out there trading at a discount like ABBV. Why is this? They are speculators and looking to turn $1000 into $100k in a few weeks, and though there is some room to run, “Failure Happens Quickly”.
Yes many will be holding bags and bags of fool’s gold, will you be one of them?
I am not a big alt coin guy anymore. Yes there was a time when I was hooked on the solutions these coins provided, for products I didn’t need. Sure a few will survive, and we have our eyes on a few alt coins to pick up when the FOMO runs its course and reality hits many like a brick wall.
Enough ranting, on to the markets.
I mention failure happens quickly as weak markets do not generally linger at resistance, they quickly reject resistance. Case in point, back in January we started as the market hit a new ATH, the 40k level was rejected quickly with an uptick in volatility only to roll over a couple days later.
Currently Bitcoin pushed the 48k resistance level, and our final target on our most recent swing trade, and though it pulled back, volatility is not really picking up here.
We are not seeing what we would consider a week order flow, the market is still finding buyers on any dip. This is a sign of strength and potentially can lead to another leg higher.
Key levels to watch here.
- 42k is a key level to hold for me to consider the market is still finding adequate bids to retain the bullish momentum.
- If we take out 42k, looking for a quick pullback into the mid 35k support area which is where I will be looking for longs.
- The level I do not want to see taken out is 35k. IF this happens looking at the mid 20’s to add back in and potentially some fresh capital as well.
- As long as 45k holds, looking for the mid 60’s low 70’s to trade on a break of 52k. Key point has to take out 52k without taking out 45k first.
- IF we dip back to 42k area and get a bullish reversal, seeing my eyes on a move back to potentially the low 50’s.
I like the consolidation here, though it is not breaking higher, it is not taking out any lows either. Much of what Bitcoin does is going to be dependent on how the S&P futures open on Sunday night, but more importantly the cash open on Tuesday (3 day Holiday).
S&P Mini Futures
We were a little hesitant to add trades going into the weekend, as the formation of an outside candle had us stepping back a little, though we did issue one new trade idea on Thursday.
What we were looking for is a close and continuation above 3920 opening the door to 4000, or a close and continuation below 3885 for a swing to 3840.
Well Friday into the close we saw buyers stepping in pushing the market above 3920 and closing at a new high. However I want to add some caution. Need to see a continuation higher after the cash open on Tuesday as this could be a fake-out.
Have several stocks on our radar for trades if the market decides to cooperate in a bullish thesis, but we are getting very frothy at this point. When everyone is wanting a piece of the action at market highs, it is likely going to end quickly and badly for those late to the dance.
Taking out 3885 opens the door for 3840 initially, but IMO this would probably be the start of a broader pullback for a retest of 3660. If this happens will be looking for longs back to 3800 and close out some additional risk.
IF the market pulls back, Bitcoin is unlikely to surge higher, and the alt-market is going to fail quicker than an broke ugly guy on Bumble.
The FOMO has not ended with stocks and cryptos, physical gold buyers are also gobbling up more physical gold than large dealers can provide, driving premiums to near record highs.
Yet spot gold is not indicative of the physicals markets and has been consolidating since last August and there still may be some downside ahead.
IF we get a strong sell in the S&P unlikely Gold is going to rally higher. Looking for a pullback into the 1675-1750 area as a buying opportunity for the long haul.
Under 1950 I am a buyer here with targets in the mid 2000’s over the next 12-18 months. Gold is a slow mover but when it gets going it can pick up momentum rather quickly.
Good area to be cost averaging into GLD or some mining stocks.
In short, though there is a long setup here unless we get a close and continuation above 1860 the risk is still to the downside in the near term. Taking out 1800 would open the door for 1675-1750 to trade.
Taking out 1860 would open the door for a retest of 1950 and on a pullback off that level I would be more aggressively buying.
I am a buyer of gold here period for the broader swing.
Silver is attempting once again to break higher, but once again if the market fails here, likely looking at a retest of 25.0.
The 22.50-25.0 area is where I would be buying for the long term. Silver has yet to catch up to gold, but when it catches the wind, the moves are impulsive and quick.
Would not be surprised to see Silver trading 40-50 in the next 12 months, but I think we get better levels to buy.
I am a buyer of silver at these levels, but want to keep some cash on the side for a swing into the low 20’s.
What I like
Some of the stocks and coins I like going into the week or looking to add on a pullback.
Lovesac is pushing the limits of furniture arraignment and also looking for another leg up. 75 can trade from here, would also be interested in a position trade out of the low to mid 40’s on any market sell.
One you can add here and simply cost average in over the next couple months. Way undervalued IMO, with over 20 drugs in phase 3, paying nearly 5% dividend, 49 years of dividend growth and a forward mulitple under 10, these stocks are just out of favor.
Buy out of favor stocks and any pullback into the 85-95 area I am simply going to add a nice position for the long term.
This is part of our core portfolio here and we have owned it for a while but I do not mind adding more even here.
I own this in a DRIP and have been adding monthly since 2015 and though I would not be a big buyer here, I still continue to add.
However if we get a pullback into the 220-260 area I will be sending in a big check to add more to my current position. Solid company, leader in agriculture and the future is going to be ag.
Put on your radar for an add into any broader selloff.
Have a few alt coins on our radar for our portfolio, and though I trimmed out most of my Ethereum I am interested in buying a pullback into the 800-1200 area for a broader swing.
Not going to hold forever, but reasonable to see 2400 trade in the next leg higher.
Once a big runner, now Palantar has stolen the spot light, but as we know sentiment seems to cycle. What is out of flavor can quickly become the flavor of the week and I like SNOW for a possible swing trade this upcoming week.
The 350 is reasonable from here, pullbacks into the 270-285 area will consider adding as a position trade.
A reopening play cinemas and hotels, as the market rotates into the re-opening sector. Took a huge fall from grace, but on pace to hit 24.0 over the next month or so as long as the market remains strong.
IF not putting on our radar for a future trade on any market sell.
Little early, and new IPO, but if we get an opportunity under 70 to buy, might start a small position. Not a fan of buying IPO’s out of the box, but this one is not getting a lot of attention now, but if and when it does, these can be big winners.
Infrastructure and Energy Alternative
Some green energy, some infrastructure, and obviously the market likes the stock. Reasonable for the upper 20’s to trade from here, get a pullback into the low teens, possible position trade.
Like the space, like that it is a profitable company, and is under the radar of most.
Possible swing trade candidate this week as well.
The markets are getting frothier than Joe’s cappuccino. Yes nobody makes a cappuccino better than my business partner Joe but even a good froth turns to a flat white if it sits long enough.
Though I mention it every week, it is best to prepare for the end then have to react when it starts. Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down. I think some alts are going to be jumping into the shaft shortly, so it will be a quick end for them.
Though we are still taking trades, and hitting a lot of targets this week, we are taking the conservative steps in letting a trade close before jumping into the next one, or at least hitting a few targets across a couple.
Long term not doing much here, just sitting and waiting on the pile of cash we have built up looking for a better opportunity. We are still long all markets, but have cash to put to work when the end comes, and it will come.
Markets are efficient and when too many people are making money, especially those with little or no experience, the pendulum swings. Eventually it ends and you do not want to be sitting on bags of crap coins and stocks that may take years to recover if they ever do.
Separate your speculative investments from your long term, get in, get out and move on. Do not make speculative crap long term holds. Part of the reason we got our crypto portfolio green is we cut the crap and went nearly all in on Bitcoin.
Don’t hold losers!!!!
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